1/6/2025 - KMCN

Current Weather Conditions: 

Reported temperature as of 9:10 PM is 46 F. Cloud cover is broken at lower heights, and completely overcast at higher heights. The high pressure system that had been in placed has been pushed on, with the nearing low / mid-latitude cyclone destabilizing the atmosphere as the core of the system nears GA. Sprinkles and showers are in the nearby vicinity around central GA, but current conditions are overcast and with no falling precip. The core of the low and the main bulk of the system currently lies over Mississippi and Alabama.

Forecast for January 6, 2025

A low of 26 F and a high of 60 F is expected, with precipitation occurring during the morning hours as people are leaving for their work day. A chance of thunder is possible as the heavier bands of rain move into the area. Cloud coverage will remain overcast in the morning, but is expected to break into the afternoon hours, and completely clear by the late afternoon to evening hours.

The temperature is expected to stay heightened throughout the twilight hours, the overcast sky acting as a blanket to keep warmth in. As the system approaches, temperatures can be expected to rise as the warm air in front of the system is pushed through central GA. A heavy rain front can be expected to move through in the early morning hours around 7 AM, and swiftly make its way through central GA. By late morning, the system will have moved through, plunging temperatures in its wake. A break in cloud cover can be expected during the afternoon, and continue to clear throughout the day. By late afternoon sky coverage is expected to be completely clear.

Wind conditions will steadily increase throughout the overnight hours as the system nears and passes, and remain consistently moderately breezy for the rest of the day. 

Expect rain totals to range from 0.25" to 0.50" depending on location. 

Forecast data pulled from the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and KMCN MOS.

FORECAST CHECK-IN:

My Forecast: Low: 26, High: 60, Precipitation expected with totals ranging between 0.25" - 0.50"

Actual Weather Conditions: Low: 31, High: 62, 0.18" of precipitation occurred.

The temperature is within acceptable margins of error, although the low was definitely a little shaky. Overcast conditions likely kept the low from dropping as low as the MOS predicted. Although, with conditions being rainy, the MOS's prediction of low temperatures should definitely not have been used as a basis.

I think I got into a habit of the lowest predicted temperature being correct, while the highest predicted temperature was correct. I need to remember to use more discretion when estimating temperatures.