1/4/2025 - KMCN

Current Weather Conditions:

54 F reported at KMCN. Clear skies over GA. No precipitation in or near vicinity. High pressure still in place, and the catalyst for the clear conditions being experienced.

Forecast for January 4, 2025

A low of 30 F and a high of 50 F can be expected. The high located over the SE region are still keeping conditions clear, keeping the trend of clear skies and no precipitation for Saturday. Wind conditions are expected to calm down as well, leaving gentle to light breezes to be experienced most of the day. A further calming of the wind will be experienced as the evening hours take hold.

Model initializations appear to be running warmer temperatures than what is occurring. The strength of the Arctic cold air pushing down is most likely greater than what the models are anticipating. To compensate, I have dropped the temperatures below model expectations. 

Cloud cover is expected to be clear throughout the overnight hours and the course of the day. Scattered coverage is possible towards the end of Saturday / beginning of Sunday. The winds are expected to stay fairly consistent throughout the day, varying back and forth between a light and gentle breeze. Towards the end of the day, the wind can be expected to die down further as the sun sets. Although wind will be light, expect temperatures in the morning hours to feel in the mid-twenties due to the lowered temperatures caused by the Arctic air.

A developing low in the Central region of the United States does appear to be bringing a chance of rain Monday with cooler temperatures alongside it. Monitoring the situation as it develops with more details coming Saturday.

Forecast data pulled from the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and MOS (KMCN). 

FORECAST CHECK-IN:

My Forecast:  Low: 30, High: 50, No Precipitation

Actual Weather: Low: 30 F, High: 53 F, No Precipitation

Forecast for today was pretty spot on. However my error margin of +2 or -2 seems to be a little too strict, as I can't seem to nail both the high and low into that range. Considering operating in range of +5 to -5 while I am still learning.